The UK tools built to spot solar storm disruption sooner

beehiveweb.co.uk editorial team 2026-08-04 13:42 4 min read

A massive solar flare erupts from the bright, textured, orange surface of the sun.

By Beehive Web News Desk

A severe solar storm could interfere with electricity networks, satellites, navigation, communications and aviation. The UK is now moving five domestically developed forecasting models towards operational use, giving infrastructure operators earlier and more targeted information about where disruption may occur.

The technology emerged from the £20 million SWIMMR programme, which ran from 2019 to 2024 and brought together more than 70 organisations. UK Research and Innovation says several tools are already supplying live data or being tested in operational settings, with full integration into services expected by the end of 2026.

UKRI’s account does not prescribe any special action for the public. The immediate practical change is for organisations running the power grid, satellites, communications systems and aircraft operations: forecasts can identify elevated risks sooner and support decisions before or during an event.

Solar eruptions can reach systems used every day

Severe space weather begins with solar activity, including coronal mass ejections — large eruptions of matter from the Sun. When their effects reach Earth, they can disturb the planet’s magnetic environment and affect technologies on the ground, in the atmosphere and in orbit.

Satellites face high-energy radiation capable of damaging onboard electronics. Disruption to satellite systems can also affect services that depend on navigation, weather observations and communications. On polar aviation routes, radiation exposure can rise during solar storms, making timely measurements and forecasts relevant to flight operators.

Power networks face a different mechanism. Geomagnetic disturbances can drive electrical currents through the ground and into transformers, potentially producing damaging imbalances or increasing the risk of outages.

Space weather is listed as a top-tier threat in the UK’s National Risk Register. A National Audit Office report cited a 2022 estimate that placed the possible economic impact of a severe event at £9 billion, although that figure describes a potential scenario rather than the expected cost of every solar storm.

May 2024 gave the power-grid model its first major test

The aurora seen widely across the UK in May 2024 followed a powerful geomagnetic storm. While the Northern Lights attracted public attention, the British Geological Survey was monitoring currents that could affect the electricity network.

The UK tools built to spot solar storm disruption sooner

A forecasting system developed through SWIMMR had identified substations considered most exposed to elevated earth currents. Transformer alarms later occurred at locations flagged by the model, according to UKRI. The system gave operators a level of advance operational visibility that had not previously been available in the UK.

The National Electricity System Operator has since commissioned further research with SWIMMR partners and the Met Office to examine how extreme space weather could affect the future resilience of the grid.

Forecasts are moving from laboratories into live operations

An independent evaluation by Frazer-Nash Consultancy found that the programme delivered against its three stated challenges: improving forecast accuracy, widening access to sensor data and accelerating the transfer of research into operational systems.

Five forecasting models are moving into use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre. A cloud-based platform has reduced the reported transfer time for new models from several years to about six months, while instruments on satellites, commercial aircraft, balloons and the ground are providing additional measurements.

One system forecasts high-energy electron conditions across multiple satellite orbits. The MAIRE+ model estimates aviation radiation exposure during normal conditions and solar storms, while MAIRE-R extends modelling to very high altitudes. Both are described as being in pre-operational use.

The programme also expanded facilities for testing how electronic components respond to radiation. The upgraded ChipIr facility and the separate NILE laboratory can examine equipment such as network hardware, high-power semiconductors and aerospace electronics under complementary radiation conditions.

Earlier warnings reduce uncertainty but do not remove the risk

The new capability does not prevent solar eruptions or guarantee that disruption can always be avoided. Several models remain pre-operational or are still moving into operational use, and UKRI has not specified a universal warning time because different hazards reach and affect systems in different ways.

The evaluation supports a measurable improvement in monitoring and response capability, rather than a claim that the UK is fully protected. The next confirmed milestone is the planned integration of the forecasting tools into operational services by the end of 2026.

Source: UK Research and Innovation News

Context & actions About this article

Source check Source trail

The article separates demonstrated operational results, economic scenario estimates and capabilities that remain in pre-operational development.

Checks

Confirmed the £20 million funding figure and the programme’s 2019–2024 delivery period.
Distinguished the five models moving into operational use from tools already supplying liv...
Attributed the £9 billion figure to a 2022 estimate cited by the National Audit Office.
Checked the May 2024 grid-system account against UKRI’s description of the model’s first m...

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